Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.2%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 30, 26, 12:31 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of NVIDIA, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft will have the largest market cap at 2026 EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich publicly traded company will have the largest market cap on 1 January 2030?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Alphabet Inc. (GOOG/GOOGL) has the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company globally as of the market close on the final trading day of December 2026.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- Resolution will be based on data provided by reputable financial market data platforms, such as CompaniesMarketCap.com or Bloomberg.
- Market capitalization is defined as the current share price multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding.
- If market data for the final trading day is ambiguous or conflicting, common sense and the consensus of major financial news outlets will be used to determine the leader.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria