Current community forecast
AfD minority government 43.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 26, 2:27 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiWill the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
Manifold MarketsNext minister president of Saxony-Anhalt?
Manifold MarketsSaxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?
PolymarketSaxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
Manifold MarketsNext Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiRules
Resolves to whichever configuration the next minister president (if any) takes the oath of office under, regardless of how long they remain in office.
- If there is ambiguity about whether an agreement between parties is a coalition or just a tolerated minority government, I'll resolve to "coalition" if there is any form of publicly signed contract between the parties, regardless of whether they call it a coalition contract.
- If somebody is voted into the office of minister president without such a contract being public, that resolves to "minority government" for the party of the minister president.