Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMerch store 100%Leader of 31 outcomes
Forecasters
208
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 11:40 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.
- (External PRs that have been merged will count.)
- Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: Must be a real subscription (not a one-time purchase without automatic monthly payments).
- Can potentially be in Mana rather than real currency.
- Update 2026-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: This answer does not need to be implemented by the Manifold team directly — external PRs that have been merged will also count toward resolution.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Manifold features launched in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Merch store at 100% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Manifold features launched in 2026 resolve?
- Manifold features launched in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Manifold features launched in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.