Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
One-OffAI8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 8:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 60.9%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 24, 1:57 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Former OpenAI superalignment team member Leopold Aschenbrenner drops off the radar for a two-year period sometime before 2035.
- Resolves as YES if he makes no public statements about AI or anything else of consequence (politics, economics, strategy, technology) for a two-year period.
- Public statements include public declassified articles, tweets, blog posts, whatever.
- If Leopold suddenly becomes a Red Sox fan and tweets about their wins and losses, that doesn't count as a statement of consequence.
- If Leopold tweets that he believes AI researchers should receive 24-7 secret service security details for national security reasons, then that is a statement about AI and national security, so it is a statement of consequence.
