Current community forecast
No 56%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 25, 1:06 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
DeepSeek IPO before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek v5 release before 2028
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a US spy was working at Deepseek at any point in the period 2025-2035.
- If, by January 1st 2100, there is no evidence for this, then this question resolves as NO.
- If there is weak evidence, but no strong evidence, then this question resolves as N/A. The NO and N/A resolutions cannot occur before January 1st 2100.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.3pt96%
- Yes+0.3pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $104K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $49.4K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 27°C+81.5pt94%
- 28°C+1.5pt5%
- 29°C-0.1pt1%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWorlds 2026 Winning Region
- LCK (South Korea)+0.5pt66.7%
- LPL (China)-0.5pt24.5%
- LEC (Europe / EMEA)-0.1pt5.9%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIChina vs Puerto Rico
- China+1.0pt78.4%
- Puerto Rico-6.0pt21.6%
- Total Vol
- $18.2K
- 24h Vol
- $18K
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-1.0pt72%
- Yes+1.0pt28%
- Total Vol
- $414.7K
- 24h Vol
- $16.1K
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- August Inflation China - Annual
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
- China vs Puerto Rico: Spread
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is there an American spy working at Deepseek??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is there an American spy working at Deepseek? resolve?
- Is there an American spy working at Deepseek? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Is there an American spy working at Deepseek? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a US spy was working at Deepseek at any point in the period 2025-2035.