Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2029 17.9%Leader of 13 outcomes
2029 17.9%Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 23, 3:03 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX launch 2 starships within 24 hours?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRules
First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).
- Any launch that clears the pad counts as a launch.
- Suborbital launches count.
- Falcon Heavy doesn't count towards the Falcon 9 number.
- If either rocket is renamed but is still obviously the same rocket, it still counts towards its previous name.
- If either rocket is redesigned but keeps the same name, it still counts.
