Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2029 17.9%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 23, 3:03 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will SpaceX launch 2 starships within 24 hours?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35
KalshiWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRules
First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).
- Any launch that clears the pad counts as a launch.
- Suborbital launches count.
- Falcon Heavy doesn't count towards the Falcon 9 number.
- If either rocket is renamed but is still obviously the same rocket, it still counts towards its previous name.
- If either rocket is redesigned but keeps the same name, it still counts.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9??
- Manifold Markets prices 2029 at 18% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? resolve?
- In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2036.
- How is In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).