Current community forecast
Nov 16 to Nov 30, 2026 49.8%-2.2ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+9.2 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 26, 10:37 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurStarship Flight 15: what happens to the ship? (first tower catch attempt, by Nov 30)
Manifold MarketsWill the Super Heavy booster explode during Starship Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the bucket containing the liftoff date (UTC) of SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated Starship/Super Heavy test flight, the 4th Starship V3 flight).
- Source: SpaceX's official launch page / webcast (spacex.com/launches), cross-checked against Wikipedia's "List of Starship launches".
- Liftoff is what counts; a scrub, static fire, or wet dress rehearsal does not.
- the named outcome
