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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Before 2032 92.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 26, 8:15 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
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FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRules
On the Q2 2026 SpaceX earnings call, Elon said that they aim to launch once per day in 2027, possibly more.
- This market asks a weaker question: when will they launch Starship twice within a 24 hour time period? This can be from different launch sites and with different Starships and different types of Starships.
- Since the launch sites could be in different time zones, local time of the second launch at the second launch site will be used for resolution.
