Current community forecast
+3.3°C or lower 20%Leader of 5 outcomes
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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7d Change
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Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 19, 26, 2:48 PM UTCNov 15, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Question: What will be the highest weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes for the four weeks centered on Oct 21, Oct 28, Nov 4 and Nov 11, 2026?
- Resolution source: the CPC weekly index file https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for (columns: Niño1+2, Niño3, Niño3.4, Niño4; the anomaly is the number after each SST, on the 1991–2020 base).
- I take the largest Niño3.4 anomaly among the rows dated 21OCT2026, 28OCT2026, 04NOV2026 and 11NOV2026, as shown when I check the file on or after Nov 17, 2026.
- CPC prints one decimal, so the answers are one decimal each.
- If the file is down, I use CPC's weekly ENSO update slides (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf), which carry the same weekly numbers.
- Where it stands: the last five weeks read +3.0, +3.1, +3.2, +3.3, +3.3 (weeks of Sep 16 → Oct 14).
