Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast6-10 years 20.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 25, 5:57 PM UTCAug 26, 45, 5:49 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end?
Manifold MarketsHow will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate)
Manifold MarketsWho will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
PolymarketTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce still together on December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Travis Kelce announce his retirement before next season?
KalshiWill Travis Kelce retire before next season?
PolymarketRules
Time will start from the day of the wedding (if no reception, then day of court house marriage license) until date of official public announcement or official reporting of a divorce.
- Rumors and "separations" don't count, needs to be actual divorce filing.
- A full year needs to occur to make it into next category (e.g. 5 years and 10 months would be "the named outcome")
- Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If either or both spouses die while still married (before any divorce filing), the market will resolve to N/A (void).