Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 53.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Oct 5, 25, 6:48 PM UTCJan 11, 70, 6:36 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).
- Resolves "the named outcome" if the marriage breaks up and there is any hint of acrimony.
- (I will be fairly generous in what qualifies for this, since the public view will be heavily filtered.
- If there aren't public indications that they're still friendly, it's probably gone down in flames.
- As a point of reference, the Joe Alwyn breakup would qualify as going down in flames.)
- Resolves "the named outcome" upon credible reporting that they have split before getting married (regardless of whether they later get back together).
