Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.5%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 24, 7:13 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If a vaccine for HIV is approved by the FDA and available for commercial use before January 1st 2035 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes.
- Emergency Use Authorization will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes, only full approval.
- Additionally, the vaccine must be released to the public and commercially available to certain members of the population.
- It need not be accessible to everyone, a release limited to certain age groups or otherwise restricted is still sufficient.
- A vaccine for either the treatment or prevention of HIV is sufficient.
- This means that either a vaccine treating a patient who has already contracted HIV, or a vaccine designed to prevent one from contracting HIV in the first place will both be sufficient to resolve this market.
