By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
AIOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80.3%
Forecasters
86
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 19, 22, 8:32 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game.
- We are not concerned with precision down to the level of generating a good Settings menu, but trying to take a qualitative look at how relevant overall the AI is.
- Individual examples that would cause this market to resolve YES: - All (or the overwhelming majority) of assets are AI generated -> YES - All game mechanics are AI generated -> YES - All the story / dialogue elements are AI generated in a visual novel -> YES
- At the end of 2026 if this market closes and no game has met the critera, this market will resolve NO.
- What counts as a game?
- I am fleshing out two main requirements: 1.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? resolve?
- By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game.