Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.6%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 23, 10:41 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsAre Recursive Language Models the "Next Frontier" of AI in 2026 according to Manifold users?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
TODO for more exact resolution criteria, but overall it will probably end up being resolved according to my subjective judgement.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT] resolve?
- By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: TODO for more exact resolution criteria, but overall it will probably end up being resolved according to my subjective judgement.