By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]?

Manifold Markets prices No at 65.6% as of October 26, 2026.

When does By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT] resolve?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT] settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: TODO for more exact resolution criteria, but overall it will probably end up being resolved according to my subjective judgement.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.5pt94%
• December 15,+10.5pt93%
• November 30,+28.0pt89%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$357.2K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+61.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+0.5pt29.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+4.4pt23.5%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.5pt16.7%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.1pt59.7%
• Gemini-0.8pt30.1%
• ChatGPT-0.1pt

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-7.5pt48%
• 2026-1.1pt13%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$76K

• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• Best AI this week
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?