Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 18, 23, 3:55 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
It doesn't have to show that they will get Parkinson's 100%, just that they progressing towards it and would very likely get it if they don't change their lifestyle and lived long enough.
- It is not a test of their genome - it needs to be of some active biological state of their body.
- Current theories suggest people who get diagnosed with Parkinson's have obvious (in retrospect) symptoms throughout their body, and that these are likely diagnosable chemically, even though actual diagnosis typically only happens when the patient reports the typical symptoms: one-sided stiffness, slowness of movement, etc.
