At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
One-OffAI3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 7:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 73.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleNov 17, 22, 9:15 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
- Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time.
- It will ask:
- Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
- This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
- The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
