Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 28, 23, 9:19 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
KalshiWill The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Manifold MarketsGTA VI will have a mission involving the launch of a spaceship (probably belonging to a satirical billionaire)
Manifold MarketsWill California’s billionaire tax take effect?
KalshiRules
As reported by western media
- The person should be American and has at least 20 living genetic children
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $555.4K
- 24h Vol
- $499.3K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+13.0pt68.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt30.4%
- 90-114-3.5pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt17.1%
- 200-219-1.0pt16.2%
- 160-179+2.0pt15.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIIllinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- Above 87.5 TWh97%
- Above 90.0 TWh+1.0pt96%
- Above 92.5 TWh+3.0pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.2K
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $220.4K
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Largest Company end of September?
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for An American billionaire has at least 20 kids, through 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does An American billionaire has at least 20 kids, through 2026 resolve?
- An American billionaire has at least 20 kids, through 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is An American billionaire has at least 20 kids, through 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As reported by western media