Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 6, 25, 5:26 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.
- --- With the advent of AI most view that cloud spending will increase.
- However AI might also optimize existing system (including itself) and there is heavy research into reducing the cost (in terms of compute and energy) of existing AI systems.
- On the other side, even if the spending is reduced it could cause a Jevons Paradox in terms of more compute being used but will that compute be local or cloud-based?
- This market will resolve Yes if services like AWS, Azure, GCP, etc start to shrink in terms of revenue/net sales according to sources.
- Specifically two or more of the services have to collectively be shrinking for three quarters in a row.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? resolve?
- AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.