KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 18, 2026, 1:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
16.0% / 25.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 2:45 PM UTCOct 21, 26, 5:55 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If United States Core Inflation Rate YoY is above United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only the first non-preliminary value reported for each measure will be used.
- The values will be compared as published in percent.
- A tie resolves No, and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Open markets
InflationKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $306K
- 24h Vol
- $87.1K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $181.1K
- 24h Vol
- $39.3K
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+4.0pt83.2%
- No-4.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $38K
- 24h Vol
- $35.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-3.5pt61.4%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt18.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.5pt17.8%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Hike–Pause–Hike+5.0pt42.9%
- Hike–Hike–Pause+5.5pt23.5%
- Hike–Hike–Hike-3.5pt18.4%
+6 more outcomes
- Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI core in October
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- Social Security COLA for 2028
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in September??
- Kalshi prices No at 100% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in September? resolve?
- Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in September? is scheduled to resolve on October 21, 2026.
- How is Will US core inflation be above UK core inflation in September? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If United States Core Inflation Rate YoY is above United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.