KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo trading activitySource data degradedStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 1:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
5.16% or above · —
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Stored price
5.16% or above 91.5%
5.16% or above 91.5%Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
— / —
5.16% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 8:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 5.16% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.15% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 6, 2026, or one week following Nov 6, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 5.16% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.15% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.18% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.17% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.2% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.19% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.22% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.21% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.24% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.23% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.26% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.25% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.28% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.27% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.3% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.29% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.32% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.31% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.34% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.33% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.36% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.35% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.38% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.37% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.4% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.39% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.42% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.41% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.44% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.43% on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
