KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.1% 97%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$278.7
Liquidity
$2.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Aug 13, 26, 6:00 PMSep 10, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
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Rules
If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-4.0pt68.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt30.7%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+2.0pt51.5%
- No-2.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
- 24h Vol
- $75.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.3K
- 24h Vol
- $15.8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+3.5pt30%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.30095%
- Above 334.35095%
- Above 334.450+3.0pt94%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.2%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- How high will inflation get this year?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- South Africa inflation rate MoM for August
- US electricity price in August
- Core PCE YoY - July 2026
- CPI in August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for PPI YoY in August?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.1% at 97% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does PPI YoY in August resolve?
- PPI YoY in August is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026.
- How is PPI YoY in August settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for August 2026 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.