KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Exactly 3.87% 73%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10.9K
Liquidity
$9.6K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 26, 2:00 PM UTCSep 24, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
73%
15%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SOFR at end of Q3 2026
KalshiSOFR at end of Q4 2026
KalshiHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketRules
If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 23, 2026 is at most 3.82%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for September 23, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”.
- Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 23, 2026 is exactly 3.83%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 23, 2026 is exactly 3.84%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 23, 2026 is exactly 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $616K
- 24h Vol
- $72.2K
POLYMARKETHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 5.45%+24.5pt91%
- 5.50%+27.0pt79%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $80.7K
- 24h Vol
- $29.7K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $84.1K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
POLYMARKETHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $57.4K
- 24h Vol
- $16.9K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Below 4.6%-11.0pt30%
- Below 4.5%-13.0pt20%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $315.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.3K
POLYMARKETHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Below 4.50%-30.5pt28%
- Below 4.35%-14.0pt21%
- Below 4.40%-22.5pt20%
+6 more outcomes
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 24, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 24, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 25, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
Frequently asked questions
- When does SOFR for September 23, 2026 resolve?
- SOFR for September 23, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 24, 2026.
- How is SOFR for September 23, 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 23, 2026 is at most 3.82%, then the market resolves to Yes.