KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.81% or above (55%)
Resolved: Sep 25, 2026, 11:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
4.81% or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
96%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 25, 2026, 7:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
4.89% or above1%
4.75% or above96%
4.65% or above98%
4.63% or above98%
4.69% or above97%
4.71% or above96%
4.77% or above82%
4.81% or above55%
4.85% or above60%
4.79% or aboveLost
4.73% or aboveLost
4.75% or aboveLost
4.65% or aboveLost
4.51% or aboveLost
4.67% or aboveLost
4.61% or aboveLost
4.63% or aboveLost
4.55% or aboveLost
4.77% or aboveLost
4.53% or aboveLost
4.85% or aboveLost
4.81% or aboveWon
4.71% or aboveLost
4.83% or aboveLost
4.99% or aboveLost
4.93% or aboveLost
4.95% or aboveLost
4.87% or aboveLost
4.91% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.50% on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 25, 2026, or one week following Sep 25, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.52% on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.54% on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.58% on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
