KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 7.0%
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 5:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If Leopold Aschenbrenner is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as any position for OpenAI before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Leopold Aschenbrenner return to OpenAI??
- Kalshi prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Leopold Aschenbrenner return to OpenAI? resolve?
- Will Leopold Aschenbrenner return to OpenAI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Leopold Aschenbrenner return to OpenAI? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Leopold Aschenbrenner is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as any position for OpenAI before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.