KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Before Dec 1, 2026 99%+82.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Before Dec 1, 2026 99%+82.0ptMarket quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$8.5K
Open interest
$32.4K
High open interestSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleJun 30, 26, 12:35 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Before Dec 1, 202699%
Before Apr 1, 202798%
Before Jan 1, 202795%
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
PolymarketMaría Corina Machado arrested in 2026?
FutuurWill María Corina Machado be granted asylum outside Venezuela in 2026?
FutuurWill María Corina Machado serve in a leadership role in a government in Venezuela by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen when María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela ? [add answers] (reupload)
Manifold MarketsWill Maria Corina Machado ever be President of Venezuela?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The Guardianofficial representatives or offices of María Corina MachadoFox Newsofficial social media accounts of María Corina Machado or her official representativesSemaforThe InformationCNBCthe Associated PressThe Wall Street JournalCNNPoliticoMSNBCThe Washington PostReutersofficial government sources of VenezuelaThe New York TimesBloomberg NewsAxiosABCCBSNBCBBC
- The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.