KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Below $300 billion 93%+8.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$312
Liquidity
$896.3
Low liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Apr 2, 26, 2:00 PM UTCFeb 4, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China rhenium imports exceed 20 thousand kg in the year ending December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China rhenium imports exceed 42 thousand kg in the year ending December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China rhenium imports exceed 30 thousand kg in the year ending December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on Mexican imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiRules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
Open markets
China
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $47.2K
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No+0.5pt73.3%
- Yes-0.5pt26.7%
- Total Vol
- $446.9K
- 24h Vol
- $32.9K
KALSHIChina vs Puerto Rico
- China+1.0pt78.4%
- Puerto Rico21.6%
- Total Vol
- $29.7K
- 24h Vol
- $29.1K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $25.9K
POLYMARKETWorlds 2026 Winning Region
- LCK (South Korea)+0.5pt66%
- LPL (China)25.2%
- LEC (Europe / EMEA)-0.1pt5.8%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+6.0pt70.6%
- Moonshot-5.2pt25.5%
- Z.ai+0.1pt2%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Unsettled Resentment vs. TEC Esports
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China vs Puerto Rico: Spread
- Valorant: TEC Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs
- Puerto Rico vs. China
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US imports of goods from China in 2026?
- Kalshi prices Below $300 billion at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US imports of goods from China in 2026 resolve?
- US imports of goods from China in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on February 4, 2027.
- How is US imports of goods from China in 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.