KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jul 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jul 1, 2027 42%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jul 1, 2027 42%Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2K
Open interest
$3.4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jul 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jul 1, 2027
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional status after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A joint announcement includes contemporaneous official statements from both sides confirming the same agreement to begin formal negotiations. An equivalent status must be expressly presented by Canada and the EU as the institutional arrangement contemplated by the EU's Canadian associate-membership proposal. Proposals, invitations, exploratory discussions, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional status after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.