KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86%
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$383
Liquidity
$383
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by which date?
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PolymarketRules
If Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tristan BuckmasterOpenAISébastien BubeckPACERThe New York TimesAssociated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- A lawsuit or some other formal adversarial legal process (such as pre-complaint discovery or an arbitration claim) is encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Total Vol
- $109K
- 24h Vol
- $69.2K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.1pt62%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt21%
- Gemini+1.3pt7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.6K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $37.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck??
- Kalshi prices No at 86% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck? resolve?
- Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.