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Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 1:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before July, 2028 25%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$115.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
20.0% / 27.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 2:27 AM UTCJul 1, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
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PolymarketWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
Manifold MarketsWill the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRules
If Blue Origin launches New Shepard After issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Blue Origin launches New Shepard After issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard?
- Kalshi prices Before July, 2028 at 25% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard resolve?
- When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2028.
- How is When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Blue Origin launches New Shepard After issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.