KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: AGI (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
AGI30%
Data Center45%
ChatGPT84%
Astra84%
Safe / Safer / Safety84%
Compute14%
Valuation / IPO37%
Open Source24%
Google / Gemini0%
Anthropic / Claude60%
Nuclear0%
China / Chinese77%
Nvidia15%
Elon / Grok0%
Sora0%
IP / Intellectual Property0%
Event does not qualify3%
AGIWon
Before close: 99% ·
Safe / Safer / SafetyLost
Before close: 99% ·
Valuation / IPOLost
Before close: 99% ·
Open SourceLost
Before close: 99% ·
ComputeLost
Before close: 14% ·
Data CenterLost
Before close: 1% ·
ChatGPTLost
Before close: 1% ·
AstraLost
Before close: 1% ·
Google / GeminiLost
Before close: 1% ·
Anthropic / ClaudeLost
Before close: 1% ·
NuclearLost
Before close: 1% ·
China / ChineseLost
Before close: 1% ·
NvidiaLost
Before close: 1% ·
Elon / GrokLost
Before close: 1% ·
SoraLost
Before close: 1% ·
IP / Intellectual PropertyLost
Before close: 1% ·
Event does not qualifyLost
Before close: 1% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?
PolymarketSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
Kalshi7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Manifold MarketsSam Altman Announces SpaceX Competitor by EOY 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Sam Altman says ChatGPT as part of CNBC: Fast Money Halftime Report originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the CNBC: Fast Money Halftime Report originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the CNBC: Fast Money Halftime Report originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Sam Altman speaking in an official capacity.