What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate?
DogecoinOne-OffMemecoinPoliticsBusiness & Corporate
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Billionaire (99%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 2:25 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Billionaire
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
74%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
China / Chinese1%
Wildfire / Fire84%
Tariff1%
Mental Health72%
Israel / Israeli31%
Hollywood63%
Trump (5+ times)75%
Newsom (3+ times)75%
Fraud80%
Refinery / Refine1%
Affordable / Affordability95%
AI / Artificial Intelligence91%
Border78%
Hospice1%
Ballroom1%
BillionaireWon
HollywoodLost
Trump (5+ times)Lost
Newsom (3+ times)Lost
Corrupt / CorruptionLost
FraudLost
Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Mental HealthLost
Data CenterLost
Wildfire / FireLost
Budget / DeficitLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
BorderLost
Israel / IsraeliLost
BallroomLost
Refinery / RefineLost
China / ChineseLost
TariffLost
Event does not qualifyLost
HospiceLost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the CNN California Governor Debate originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the CNN California Governor Debate originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). any participating candidate speaking in an official capacity.
- For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
