Current community forecast
No 96.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 4, 25, 12:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiWill Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Manifold MarketsWhen will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurSam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a new SpaceX competitor with Sam Altman as CEO / primary backer is launched.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,750 or above99%
- $70,000 or above99%
- $73,000 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $985.8K
- 24h Vol
- $976.7K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $70,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $65,000 or above98%
- $64,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $945.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 200-219+4.0pt27.4%
- 180-199+2.0pt26.5%
- 220-239+4.0pt19.6%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 15, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $76,000 or above99%
- $76,300 or above98%
- $76,400 or above98%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $162.2K
- 24h Vol
- $153.8K
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99-0.7pt13.5%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99-0.5pt12.5%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.2pt12.5%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 15, 2026?
- Chicago+19.0pt95%
- Miami+16.0pt69%
- Seattle+22.0pt30%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $149.5K
- Elon Musk # tweets September 14 - September 16, 2026?
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- ETH price on Sep 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 15, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 15, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 15, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Sam Altman Announces SpaceX Competitor by EOY 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Sam Altman Announces SpaceX Competitor by EOY 2026 resolve?
- Sam Altman Announces SpaceX Competitor by EOY 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Sam Altman Announces SpaceX Competitor by EOY 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a new SpaceX competitor with Sam Altman as CEO / primary backer is launched.