KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 5.36% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 10:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 5.36%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 8:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 5.36%99%
Above 5.39%95%
Above 5.44%0%
Above 5.46%5%
Above 5.37%99%
Above 5.40%99%
Above 5.43%0%
Above 5.35%0%
Above 5.38%96%
Above 5.41%47%
Above 5.42%0%
Above 5.45%5%
Above 5.47%0%
Above 5.48%0%
Above 5.49%0%
Above 5.50%0%
Above 5.51%0%
Above 5.52%0%
Above 5.36%Won
Above 5.39%Lost
Above 5.37%Lost
Above 5.40%Lost
Above 5.41%Lost
Above 5.46%Lost
Above 5.43%Lost
Above 5.44%Lost
Above 5.35%Lost
Above 5.38%Lost
Above 5.42%Lost
Above 5.45%Lost
Above 5.47%Lost
Above 5.48%Lost
Above 5.49%Lost
Above 5.50%Lost
Above 5.51%Lost
Above 5.52%Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.35% at Oct 21, 2026 at 5:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 30Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time.
- For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET.
- No averaging applies.
- The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.
- Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute.