GeminiLimited verified dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityBefore 2027 2%
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Mar 4, 26, 11:48 AMJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 20272%
Compare venues· Before 2028
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall100% match · auto | Medium | 3% | 0pt | $473.9 | $168.8K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 1% | -2pt | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
NASA lands on the moon?
0.2 pts1y
+2.0pt49%
+4.0pt28%
+0.2pt3%
+1 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$501.5K
24h Vol$473.9
KALSHIRules
NASA lands on the moon?
- If an announcement indicates that any manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to no.
- Outcome verified from NASA.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa92a4182002340a6ac95acf878f1991f?alt=media&token=8a40042a-95e9-44e9-a6f8-3c358d80cc13&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If an announcement indicates that any manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
Which company has best AI model end of August?
$54.8KAnthropic: 89%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?
$16.3K$0.70-$0.80T: 47%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
$7KBy Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSSecond-best AI Lab end of August?
$6.7KCompany A: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How many space launches will there be in Jul 2026?
$5.1KAbove 14: 14%KALSHI
KALSHIWill NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?
$2.5KYes: 2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Alphabet’s $1 billion SpaceX gamble balloons into a $94 billion stakeCrypto NewsSpaceX stock sinks to post-IPO low after Starship launch abortCrypto NewsSpaceX slips below $140 despite FAA clearing Starship for launchCrypto News
FireSat Launches 3 Satellites to Boost Wildfire DetectionBlockchain.NewsRules
NASA lands on the moon?
- If an announcement indicates that any manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to no.
- Outcome verified from NASA.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa92a4182002340a6ac95acf878f1991f?alt=media&token=8a40042a-95e9-44e9-a6f8-3c358d80cc13&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If an announcement indicates that any manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.