Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in July 2026?
2.0 pts (24h)InflationMonthlyForecastExClosedLimited verified dataThis market resolved: No (90%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probabilityNo 90%
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10.8K
Liquidity
$12K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleProbability Timeline
Yes10%
No90%
90%
10%
Rules
US Consumer Price Index Yearly July 2026.
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in July 2026? Price reflects the latest available ForecastEx exchange evidence.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-3.0pt67.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt31.7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.3M
- 24h Vol
- $4.2M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+7.0pt56%
- No-7.0pt44%
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $171.6K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+5.0pt33%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Pause–Pause–Pause-7.0pt64.7%
- Pause–Pause–Cut1%
- Other+8.0pt34.3%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.7K
- 24h Vol
- $10.2K
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.30095%
- Above 334.35095%
- Above 334.450+3.0pt94%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $55.2K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- How high will inflation get this year?
- US shelter CPI in August
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- CPI in August
- South Africa inflation rate MoM for August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- US electricity price in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - July 2026
- Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in July 2026??
- ForecastEx prices No at 90% as of August 12, 2026.
- When does Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in July 2026? resolve?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in July 2026? is scheduled to resolve on August 12, 2026.
- How is Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.4% in July 2026? settled?
- ForecastEx settles this market as follows: US Consumer Price Index Yearly July 2026.