PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Anthropic · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
—
Gespeicherter Referenzwert
Anthropic 56%
Anthropic 56%Marktqualitat
42 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
421,5 €
Niedrige LiquiditätOpen Interest
281,3 $
Geld / Brief
— / —
AnthropicSpread
—
Kommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+2.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
18. Sept. 26, 16:42 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Größte Inhaber
Größte Inhaber werden geladen
Markttiefe · Anthropic
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
—
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so.
- This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
- If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
- A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.