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Gespeicherter Referenzwert
December 18%
December 18%Marktqualitat
28 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
115,8 €
Liquidität
632,5 €
Niedrige LiquiditätOpen Interest
5052,3 $
Geld / Brief
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DecemberSpread
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7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
18. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
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Markttiefe · December
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.
- Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi — Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? · Before Jan 1, 2029 66%
