Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore H2 2030 81.4%Führend unter 10 Optionen
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11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juli 25, 15:41 UTC30. Juli 28, 15:31 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWill a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.