When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

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Before Dec 2035 88.7%

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28. Feb. 26, 01:48 UTC1. Jan. 36, 06:59 UTC

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Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

KI BaseballOne-Off9J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

Führend unter 10 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Änderung

0.0 pts

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde

Verzogert

28. Feb. 26, 01:48 UTC1. Jan. 36, 06:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each??: Manifold Markets bewertet Before Dec 2035 mit 88.7% (Stand: 26. September 2026).
Wann wird When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? entschieden?: When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? soll am 1. Januar 2036 entschieden werden.
Wie wird When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

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