When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
0.5 Pkt. (24h)KIOne-Off8JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2035 78.8%+0.5ptFührend unter 10 Optionen
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Veraltet30. Juli 25, 15:46 UTC1. Jan. 35, 16:44 UTC
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KalshiRegeln
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2035 mit 79% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] entschieden?
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] soll am 1. Januar 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As reported by OpenAI.