PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 98%+0.5pt
Marktqualitat
75 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
2463,3 €
Liquidität
19.762,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
1.7% / 2.7%
Spread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
15
7d-Änderung
-0.4 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
8. Dez. 25, 00:12 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWho will be the next Secretary General of NATO?
KalshiWill the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Any country withdraws from EU before 2027??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? entschieden?
- Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.