Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 52.6%
Prognostiker
43
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet18. Mai 23, 22:12 UTC21. Apr. 00, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf there is a civil war in America starting before 2030, who will win?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegeln
A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government.
- This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace.
- A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military.
- The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.