Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77.5%
Prognostiker
63
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet14. Okt. 23, 17:43 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the U.S. have a civil war by end 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegeln
We've seen a drastic shift in the US politicalsphere from 2010's to 2020's.
- How drastic do you think things can go?
- All baby boomers would have reached retirement age by around 2030.
- This will resolve in "yes" if the US army is mobilized to deal with domestic terrorism or part of government.
- Resolves in "no" otherwise.
- Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
