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Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
26. Aug. 22, 03:21 UTC1. Jan. 30, 08:00 UTC
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Will there be a civil war in Nigeria before 2030
Manifold MarketsIf there is a civil war in America starting before 2030, who will win?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Britain before the end of 2029
Manifold MarketsWill any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegeln
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
- It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
- It's an "I know it when I see it" kind of thing.
- I won't bet.