Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 71%
Prognostiker
1,046
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 33 Minuten
24. Mai 22, 01:01 UTC1. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
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Manifold MarketsCondition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
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KalshiRegeln
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/
- Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.
- Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.
- Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.