Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 72%
Prognostiker
1,039
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
24. Mai 22, 01:01 UTC1. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/
- Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.
- Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.
- Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Wird China vor 2030 eine umfassende Invasion Taiwans starten??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Wird China vor 2030 eine umfassende Invasion Taiwans starten? entschieden?
- Wird China vor 2030 eine umfassende Invasion Taiwans starten? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Wird China vor 2030 eine umfassende Invasion Taiwans starten? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/