Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
>2028 87%Führend unter 23 Optionen
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet21. Nov. 24, 15:59 UTC31. Dez. 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
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KalshiRegeln
This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.
- Resolution criteria:
- Qualifies as aggressive use:
- Use of any nuclear weapon (including tactical) against another nation
- Nuclear detonations caused by non-state actors or unknown perpetrators
- Accidental nuke uses that impact outside the initiating nation's borders
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
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- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Manifold Markets bewertet >2028 mit 87% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? entschieden?
- When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.