PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Nein · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Referenzwert
Nein 98%
Nein 98%Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
1011,2 €
Niedrige LiquiditätOpen Interest
1642,6 $
Geld / Brief
— / —
NeinSpread
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Kommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+0.1 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
2. Juli 26, 14:49 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 0,1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Größte Inhaber
Größte Inhaber werden geladen
Markttiefe · Nein
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?
KalshiViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
PolymarketPhoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
PolymarketLuke Campbell arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWill Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.