PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 4%
Marktqualitat
60 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
9,1 €
Liquidität
7782,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
3.7% / 3.9%
Spread
5.4%
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
2. Juli 26, 14:4931. Dez. 26, 23:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes4%
Volumentrend
$102. Juli7T Daten8. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
3079,7 €Ja: 25%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
516,7 €Joe Biden: 7%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
196,3 €Ja: 88.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Ekrem Imamoglu leave jail by the end of 2026?
175,5 €Ja: 25%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
121,3 €Ja: 10%KALSHI
KALSHIWill there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
63,2 €Ja: 75.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.