PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 22%
Marktqualitat
80 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
3420,9 €
Liquidität
24.212,3 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
4.8%
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
8. Juli 26, 1:1531. Dez. 26, 23:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes22%
Verwandte Märkte
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
869,9 €Jacob Frey: 10%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
196,3 €Ja: 88.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Ekrem Imamoglu leave jail by the end of 2026?
175,5 €Ja: 25%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
Jimmy Lai released by...?
0 €December 31,: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by...?
0 €December 31,: 11%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
141,2 €Ja: 11%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.