PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 91%-1.0pt
Marktqualitat
62 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
3 €
Liquidität
10.493,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
8.0% / 10.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
9
7d-Änderung
-2.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
8. Juli 26, 01:15 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketPhoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWill conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by which date?
PolymarketWill Netanyahu be arrested?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.