Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 23:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.3%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert18. Juni 25, 21:25 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029
Manifold MarketsUS and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029
Manifold MarketsUS and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029
Manifold MarketsNuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029.
- With rising global tensions and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by several countries, the risk of nuclear weapon use is a pressing concern.
- Resolution will be based on reports from international news agencies and official government statements.