Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77%
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet29. Juni 26, 00:09 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL.
- It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 77% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] entschieden?
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.